The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made a heavy sound! How to go to real estate in 2024？ The point is ＂two things＂

　　In 2023, in order to adapt to the new situation that the relationship between supply and demand in China’s real estate market has undergone major changes, the relevant policies of the property market have turned. The real estate policy that is too strict and too tight is gradually loosened, the improvement of the basic system is put on the agenda, the exploration of new models is accelerated, and the real estate market is moving towards a new era.

　　What will happen to the real estate market in 2024? The National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction held from 21st to 22nd revealed the mystery. When deploying real estate-related work in 2024, the meeting pointed out that two things should be done well: one is to stabilize the real estate market, and the other is to build a new real estate development model.

　　Stabilizing the real estate market is "topped"

　　This meeting will stabilize the real estate market in the first place in the housing and real estate sector, and its importance can be seen. The meeting proposed to adhere to the policy of one city, one city, one policy and precise policy, meet the demand for rigid and improved housing, optimize the real estate policy, continue to do a good job in ensuring the people’s livelihood and stability in Baojiaolou, handle the risks of housing enterprises steadily, and rectify the order of the real estate market with heavy punches.

　　Specifically, relevant policies may be exerted from three aspects.

　　First, in 2024, core cities will continue to optimize and adjust their real estate policies.

　　According to the actual situation of the local real estate market, the optimization and adjustment of local real estate policies will be supported by cities. Recently, Qingdao, Tangshan, Zhengzhou and other key second-tier cities have completely cancelled the purchase restriction intensively, and this scope will continue to expand next year.

　　In addition, in 2024, all localities are expected to further increase their support for the first and improved housing. For example, continue to reduce the down payment ratio of the first and second suites, mortgage interest rates, etc., and lower the threshold for people to buy houses and change houses. At the end of the year, Beijing and Shanghai also took measures to optimize the housing purchase policy, which involved reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, and sent a heavy positive signal.

　　The second is to properly handle the risks of housing enterprises and do a good job of "guaranteeing the building".

　　At present, real estate risks are mainly reflected in the debt resolution of housing enterprises and the delivery of new houses. The Central Economic Work Conference clearly stated that real estate risks should be actively and steadily resolved, and the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems should be met equally.

　　Liu Shui, director of enterprise research at the Central Finger Research Institute, pointed out that there have been reports recently that the central bank and other three departments held a forum for financial institutions, focusing on the requirements of "three no less than" indicators (the growth rate of real estate loans of each bank is not lower than the average growth rate of real estate loans in the banking industry; The growth rate of corporate loans to non-state-owned housing enterprises is not lower than that of the Bank’s real estate; The growth rate of personal mortgage for non-state-owned housing enterprises is not lower than that of the Bank). At the same time, the "second arrow" financing of housing enterprises continued to receive support, and many listed housing enterprises completed equity financing.

　　He predicted that in 2024, the financial support policies for housing enterprises are expected to continue to be implemented in detail, and if the policies such as "three no less than" can be substantially implemented, it will help improve the financing environment for enterprises. In addition, the "Baojiaolou" funds and supporting measures are also expected to be further followed up to promote the resolution of project delivery risks.

　　The root of housing delivery risk lies in the pre-sale system.

　　Chen Wenjing, director of market research of the Central Finger Research Institute, believes that in 2024, relevant departments will further strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds, and pilot or further expand the existing home sales.

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that the responsibility of local governments must be tightened for the hard funding gap and the more difficult Baojielou project. He believes that in 2024, the supervision of pre-sale funds will be further strengthened, and the principle of earmarking pre-sale funds will be comprehensively and seriously regulated in accordance with the management measures for pre-sale funds.

　　The third is to rectify the order of the real estate market with heavy punches.

　　In the stage of market transformation, the government places special emphasis on rectifying market order, which is also one of the important ways to stabilize the property market.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Research Institute, believes that it is hoped that the recovery of the real estate market will be based on the premise of stable order, otherwise new risks will appear in the recovery under disorder.

　　Building a new model of real estate development is a "fundamental solution"

　　In view of building a new model of real estate development, the relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office recently said that this is the fundamental solution to solve the real estate development problems and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Since the Central Economic Work Conference in 2021 first mentioned "exploring a new development model", the process of building a new development model of real estate in China has been continuously advanced, and the methods have gradually become clear.

　　How to build a new model of real estate development?

　　This national conference on urban and rural housing construction proposed to establish a new linkage mechanism of "people, housing, land and money", improve the basic system of housing life cycle from development and construction to maintenance and use, implement the construction of "three major projects", speed up solving the housing problems of new citizens, young people and migrant workers, make efforts to build a good house and create a new track in the housing field.

　　Yan Yuejin believes that building a new model includes the new mechanism of factor linkage, the basic system of housing life cycle, the construction of three major projects, and building a good house. He believes that the current real estate sector is facing the development opportunity of creating a new track, and the key to truly moving towards this new track is to build a good house.

　　Chen Wenjing also believes that this meeting further clarified that China’s housing development is entering a "good" stage from "whether there is", and the meeting stressed the need to "make efforts to build a good house and create a new track in the housing field".

　　On the one hand, the increase in the supply of "good houses" means that the matching degree between supply and demand will be higher, on the other hand, it will also promote more demand for improved housing to enter the market, and there is still much room for the future demand for improved housing. She believes that after more than two years of market overshoot, the "favorable factors" are increasing with the concerted efforts of policies at both ends of supply and demand, and the real estate market is expected to gradually stabilize in 2024.

　　Li Yujia said that it is also an important part of the new real estate model to comprehensively promote the new development and sales model of pre-sale and current sales, gradually transform to the current sales model, and completely solve the problems of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings under the pre-sale system. (Text/Pang Wuji)