Spring Festival file forecast： YOLO is temporarily ahead, but The Movie Emperor may be a dark horse.

Seeing that there is one week left before the Spring Festival, the predictions of the Spring Festival stalls are gradually released.

No matter the predictions made by Cat’s Eye or other professional film critics, YOLO, a film directed and starring Jia Ling, topped the list, with a prediction of almost 3.5 billion, and some even gave higher expectations, thinking that it could reach 4 billion.

Surprisingly, at the bottom of these films, Andy Lau and Ning Hao co-wrote The Movie Emperor. Although Andy Lau, the king of heaven, has laid the foundation, it shows the potential that it may become a dark horse.

The overall box office forecast is on the high side, and both inside and outside the industry are optimistic.

First of all, look at the box office forecast given by the most professional lighthouse professional edition. There are more than 3.2 billion YOLO at the top of the list; Followed by the comedy "Article 20" brought by Zhang Yimou Wei, the forecast reached 2.2 billion; Further down is Han Han and Shen Teng’s Pegasus 2, which can also break through the 2 billion mark. As for Bears, which is called the goalkeeper of the Spring Festival every year, it is predicted that the box office will maintain a stable level, with 1.6 billion; Maybe even 1 billion won’t be broken, and the bottom two are The Movie Emperor and Viva La Vida starring Peng Yuchang.

Among the predictions given by film critics, YOLO’s box office can reach 4.1 billion, followed by Han Han’s Pegasus 2, with nearly 3 billion, while Andy Lau’s The Movie Emperor was at the bottom of this prediction, with just over 500 million.

However, in any case, on the whole, it seems that everyone has full confidence in this Spring Festival file and has given a high forecast for this year’s box office performance. This is indeed a bold thing. Traveling and going to the cinema during the Spring Festival can’t escape the situation of price increase. Besides, during the Spring Festival, it is an annual time for all Chinese to spend money even if it is expensive, which has already doomed the movie box office to rise accordingly.

In addition, most of the movies released this year are family fun. For example, last year, everyone felt that the threshold of Wandering Earth 2 was a little high. No matter which movie it is this year, the whole family can sit quietly in the cinema and laugh.

However, will the movie’s final box office really go as predicted? In fact, it’s really hard to say, because it seems that there is a dark horse in the Spring Festival every year.

I’m afraid the fierce marketing of the first echelon will lead to self-loathing.

According to the predictions of major media critics, three films, Article 20, YOLO and Pegasus 2, have been listed as the first echelon of this year’s Spring Festival, which means that these three films will take 60% or even more than 70% of the box office this year.

To win so many box offices, the first thing to ensure is that these films have an absolute advantage. Nowadays, there is a popular competition for arranging films. These filmmakers directly sent a notice to the cinema without saying anything. The choice that the cinema can make is to agree or disagree. In this regard, in order to ensure fair competition to a certain extent during the Spring Festival this year, the China Film Association also issued a special notice to put an end to malicious competition.

However, the cinema also wants to make more money after spending money on the most advertised films, so we see that Jia Ling lost 100 pounds for the film and got more than 25% of the film.

The words "Jia Ling who lost 100 pounds" have recently been bored by netizens. Since Jia Ling shouted this sentence, everyone wants to know what Jia Ling looks like now. Health bloggers and fitness bloggers from all walks of life have analyzed how Jia Ling lost a person in one year.

Jia Ling is becoming more and more sophisticated in marketing means, and you can see more and more marketing in Zhang Xiaofei and Jia Ling with the naked eye. No matter what kind of entries, you can rub them hard.

There is Zhang Yimou’s "Article 20", which is not a serious and good work that has been polished for many years. To put it bluntly, it is a movie that rubs invisible traffic, and there is a lot of marketing. Just Zhao Liying’s sign language doesn’t know how hard fans are promoting it.

However, I don’t know if these films have ever thought about it. Sometimes netizens are just anti-bones, and there is too much marketing, which may also play a role in anti-bite. Everyone wants us to be tap water, to announce and like a movie on our own initiative. Or, if the marketing method is a little smarter, it will wash everyone’s brains invisibly and make people unaware.

Because once the marketing goes too far, everyone will finally go in and have a look. If the goods are not in the right version, the word-of-mouth will be even worse. Now no one is a fool, and everyone is waiting for the first wave of word-of-mouth. The long-term effect is more important if a movie really wants to create a miracle at the box office. Moreover, every Spring Festival, it seems that there is always a dark horse deus ex.

Every year, there are dark horses at the bottom, which may counterattack.

The Spring Festival stalls are mysterious in this place. Every year, the movie that everyone is most optimistic about often won’t win the top spot. Instead, it is the one that seems to be not the most top-notch and will be countered.

Jia Ling used to be the beneficiary of this event. Detective Chinatown 3, which delayed the release for one year, and Chen Sicheng made full efforts to promote the film for more than two years, and lost to Hi, Mom, Jia Ling. Another year, it was a similar situation. In the final chapter of Ning Hao Crazy Series, Bo Huang and Shen Teng were two big comedies, but they didn’t lose to The Wandering Earth, who was not optimistic.

This matter, almost all quickly formed an iron law, and this year’s Spring Festival file will not be guaranteed, and it will follow this law. At the bottom of the current "The Movie Emperor", it finally counterattacked by word of mouth.